American League East

1. New York Yankees – They may end up with 3 rookies in the rotation by mid-summer, but that’s only a problem if the rookies aren’t very good.  Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain are 3 of the best in the game.  With Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, and Kei Igawa the Yankees also have some veteran SP depth.  Though I think Joba Chamberlain is better off in the bullpen providing that shut down 8^th before Rivera’s 9^th..  I also would expect them to make a trade for a veteran SP this season.
   • Offense: Development of Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera are important.  But Yankees really need resurgent years from Damon, Giambi, Abreu and Matsui.  Their offense will be a bigger question mark than their pitching
   • Make or Break – Andy Pettitte.  He has to be healthy most of the season or the starting pitching will crumble.  That and the guy who dyes A-Rod’s hair.  In order to play good, A-Rod must feel good.
2. Boston Red Sox – Injury to Curt Schilling hurts.  Beckett will start the year on the DL.  Wakefield, the Dick Clark of baseball, is in his 40’s.  Jon Lester has never pitched more than 150 IP in his career and only twice as eclipsed 100 IP.  Dice K is probably the kind of SP that year in and year out is 15-12 with an ERA close to 4 and not the ace he was expected to be.  Their bullpen is a strength with Papelbon the best in the bigs.
   • Offense:  Manny and Ortiz lead the way.  Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury and Varitek all provide different contributions but are incredibly important.  JD Drew and Julio Lugo will try to justify their contracts again this season
   • Make or Break – Clay Buchholz.  After last year’s no-hitter, he was shut down.  If he can turn in a season long performance that is ace worthy, it could re-establish the Red Sox as the team to beat.  If not, they could continue to morph into the Yankees, just a couple of years behind.
3. Tampa Bay Devil Rays – Call me crazy, but when you get rid of a guy who attacked an umpire and get rid of a guy who texted a picture of a handgun to his girlfriend with the message, “You dead, dawg”, its probably going to improve the team chemistry.  Add in some veterans, specifically Troy Percival and Cliff Floyd and this teams talent should take off.  SP of Kazmir, Shields, Garza and other youngsters waiting could really elevate this team
   • Offense:  Led by Crawford, Upton and Pena the team has speed, power and everything in between and could get even better if uber prospect 3B Evan Longoria is called up in the first half of the season.
   • Make or Break – Scott Kazmir.  If he can bounce back and be healthy, Tampa Bay could use young pitching to acquire some more needs offensively or in the bullpen.  If not, they will have to continue to be patient.
4. Toronto Blue Jays – Team has been rife with controversy at the managerial position and in the GM spot.  That usually doesn’t translate to a whole lot of on the field success.  Roy Halladay and AJ “If he stays healthy for the whole season” Burnett will anchor the rotation, followed by McGowan, Litsch and Marcum.  You haven’t heard of them now and with the exception of McGowan, you probably won’t by the end of the season.
   • Offense: Rios, Wells, Hill, Big Hurt, Overbay could be one of the best in the AL or one of the most disappointing.
   • Make or Break - Vernon Wells.  Makes too much money to underachieve.  Toronto needs offense to be able to keep up with Boston and New York and then just cross their fingers with their pitching.
5. Baltimore Orioles – Add them to the list of teams that will flourish once their owner, in this case Peter Angelos, is no longer in office (Pirates, Royals and Twins fit that bill).  Until then, Baltimore will have some exciting young players in Adam Jones and Nick Markakis to watch and really not a lot of other reasons.
   • Make or Break – Adam Jones.  No, not Pac Man and it shouldn’t be held against him that he has the same name.  The former Seattle super prospect that was centerpiece of Erik Bedard trade has a ton of talent.  He could give Baltimore the most dynamic pair of OF’ers in the MLB or another reason for Oriole fans to hate their own team if he disappoints.

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers – 3 major off season acquisitions make this team really interesting.  Edgar Renteria, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis make this team a competitor with the Indians and add to an arsenal of a team that just made it to the World Series in 2006.  Plus, we’ll find out if it was a change of scenery that was needed or basically an entire arm transplant for Dontrelle Willis.  The bullpen is a mess without Joel Zumaya, who is likely done for the entire season.
   1. Offensively, they are an absolute force.  Sheffield, Ordonez, Guillen, Granderson, Renteria and Cabrera. That’s ridiculous.
   2. Make of Break – Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman.  If you went back 3 years, these two were on the verge of super stardom.  Now they are both on the verge of being journeyman.  If both figure it out, Detroit will be clear AL favorite.
2. Cleveland Indians – Very similar to the Tigers.  Lots of offense, some great pitching at the top but suspect in rotation depth and bullpen.  Sabathia will have contract status discussed all season and that impact could go either way with his performance.  Carmona will have to duplicate last year and Byrd will have to do it without HGH.  Joe Borowski in the bullpen is scary and no real attractive options to close other than Borowski..  AL Central may be decided by who is able to trade for Chad Cordero or Huston Street.
   1. Offensively: Grady Sizemore will continue to improve with Hafner, Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta.  More holes offensively with Garko, Cabrera, Jason Michaels and Franklin Gutierrez than the Tigers but still a very good mone.
   2. Make or Break – Joe Borowski.  Team has limited window with CC’s contract.  If the bullpen can’t nail down wins, it could be a long season.
3. Chicago White Sox – Seems like a team in turmoil.  Despite moves to trade Garland, sign Swisher and trade for Quentin, it’s not clear what direction this team is going.  Perhaps it has something, probably everything to do with their manager who wields too much power.  SP is strong at the top with Buerhle and Vasquez but after that a couple of questions marks in Jose Contreras and Jon Danks.  Bullpen has Bobby Jenks, who continues to be very good.
   1. Offensively – Thome, Konerko, Swisher, Dye, O.Cabrera give it a lot of juice.  They’ll all need to play well to try and catch Detroit or Cleveland.
   2. Make or Break – Jose Contreras.  Joining El Duque, Livian Hernandez and Dikembo Mutomobo, Lebron James and Greg Oden on the All- How Old Are They Really? Team.  If he can pitch as he did 2 years ago, White Sox could be right there with Indians and Tigers.
4. Kansas City Royals – 2008 will be remembered for the Royals and Rays getting out of the basement, well if you are a Royals or Rays fan.  Royals have some great young talent, some interesting arms and at this point a bit more hope than the Twins after the Santana trade.
   1. Make or Break – Gil Meche.  While he pitched effectively last season, it’s still no where near enough to justify massive contract.  Per financials, if he’s bad, Royals have no shot next 4 seasons at anything.
5. Minnesota Twins – Not only did they lose Santana, but they also traded Matt Garza and I’m not sure they have the depth to sustain both those losses.  Francisco Liriano starts out in the minors and they may have a strong second half but I think the purse tightening finally catches up to them
   1. Make or Break – Carlos Gomez.  If he provides to be a good to very good player, Twins fans won’t despair over Johan Santana, as much.

AL West

1. Seattle Mariners – Maybe the strongest rotation from 1-5 in the American League.  Erik Bedard, Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista and Carlos Silva give the Mariners a bunch of reliable innings eaters to go with their two aces at the top.  JJ Putz and some other young arms make up a formidable bullpen.
   1. If Richie Sexson can bounce back and hit closer to career average of .260 than the Mendoza line, Seattle could have a potent lineup.  Ichiro, Beltre, Ibanez, Betancourt, J.Lopez, Jojima, Vidro and Wilkerson are all pesky players with some pop.
   2. Make or Break – Richie Sexson – Any Dback fans still want to complain about letting this guy go? 
2. LA Angels of Anaheim – John Lackey could be out for a long time, Kelvim Escobar is likely out for the season and after that there is lots of youth.  Jered Weaver, Dustin Mosely, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders will make up rotation with Jon Garland.  Still a strong closer in K-Rod but their bullpen hasn’t been the same without an effective Scott Shields.
   1. Young hitters have not produced as expected, you’d much rather have the Dbacks than Angels at this point.  Torii Hunter gives team some more thump, but instead of spending all that money on Hunter and Matthews Jr last two year, it would have been better off finding true protection for Vlad Guerrero.
   2. Make or Break – Ervin Santana.  If he can pitch this season everywhere like he pitched at home (6-4, 3.27) Angels can survive early injuries.  If not, they make dig themselves into a tough hole.
3. Oakland A’s – Along with the White Sox, team may have biggest inadvertent impact on AL champs than any other team.  With Joe Blanton, Rich Harden and Huston Street all potentially available, lots of teams will be rooting for the A’s to struggle.  But if Harden is healthy, A’s may have a strong enough staff to compete well into the summer and push back any potential firesale.
   1. Offensively – They could be pretty bad.  They need Barton, Suzuki, Buck and others to develop this season to not be amongst the worst in baseball.
   2. Make or Break – Rich Harden, with Bobby Crosby and Eric Chavez not far behind.
4. Texas Rangers – Remember a few years ago when the Rangers had a lot of really good, young talent but no pitching.  Well, the KC Chiefs of MLB are now a not very young team with no real pitching after consistently failing to address those pitching needs.
   1. Make or Break – Josh Hamilton.  Could be 40 HR guy making offense really good or could be injury prone again and leave offense weak

AL Wild Card: Cleveland Indians

AL Championship: Tigers over the Yankees

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander