NL West

1. LA Dodgers – I think I’ve picked them to win the last several years in a row.  They have the best rotation 1-5, depending on if Hiroki Kiroda not being pulling of a debut like Kei Igawa or Hideki Irabu.  Penny, Lowe, Billingsley, Kiroda, and Loaiza with Schmidt expected back in May and Clayton Kershaw in the minors is a deep and talented staff.  Plus Broxton/Saito are a great 8^th/9^th combo
   1. Offense: Rafael Furcal is going to have a monster year.  Andruw Jones is the key to this offense.  If he can bounce back after a disastrous 2007, offense could be very good but if he continues to ingest a dozen donuts a day seemingly, it could be lost money.  Also, the development of James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Eithier are very important.  Will the Dodgers be more Angels or Dbacks with their young players?  They need results now from their young players.
   2. Make or Break – Andruw Jones.  If he performs, it takes the pressure off young players and also gives them a bona fide cleanup hitter. 
2. Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks will deal with the pressure of being the reigning NL West champions.  Whether they repeat that feat or not is probably decided by how they are able to replace nearly 400 IP lost off their staff.  The defection of Livian Hernandez may save money not only in salary but in food from the post game spread but it also hurts the Dbacks because of his consistency taking the ball.  Combined with the uncertain status of Doug Davis, who will miss most of April and May (at least) after thyroid cancer surgery, Arizona will need to replace both of those innings eaters on a thin staff.
   1. Offense: Complete opposite of the Rockies.  Most of their lineup probably had subpar seasons, save for Eric Byrnes, and yet they were still able to win the crown.  With the developing bats of Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Justin Upton, Arizona could have a formidable lineup.
   2. Make or Break – Micah Owings.  They showed they can win without a great offense, but they’ll need very good pitching.  With Davis’s health status and Livian leaving, Arizona needs Owings to throw 200 IP.
3. Colorado Rockies – They seem like a logical team to see a bit of a drop off from last year, considering just about everyone in their lineup had career years. They have a nice trio if young pitching in Francis/Jimenez/Morales.  Aaron Cook has only once had 200 IP in his career.  Plus, I think Francis will fall off a little bit and Morales is not quite ready for an entire season.
   1. Offense: They got amazing years from just about every regular.  It’s easy to forget that this team was in 4^th place for about 90% of the season.  They had to win 14 of 15 and win a play-in game to make the playoffs.  They are a much better team than anyone thought but I don’t think they are perennial pennant contenders…yet.
   2. Make or Break – Ubaldo Jimenez/Franklin Morales – They both need to pitch well for an entire season in the bigs.  Jimenez was electric in the playoffs, Morales was very inconsistent.
4. San Diego Padres – Their inability to land a big bat will cost them once again.  Though, had Chris Young stayed healthy this team probably wins the NL West.  At some point Hoffman and Maddux will falter and I think that is this year, although this is now the 5^th straight year someone has predicted that.  Both will be serviceable but not above average.
   1. Offense: I still can’t believe Khalil Greene hit 27 HR’s last year.  Is he buddies with Jose Guillen or Paul Byrd? With Adrian Gonzalez, they combined to hit 57 HR’s.  They also lost Mike Cameron and his 21 Hr’s.  I just can’t see this team surviving in the NL West.
   2. Make or Break – Kevin Kouzmanoff.  After struggling to start his rookie year, he ended up with 18 HR’s.  He’ll have to hit close to 30 to provide another big bat for their offense.
5. San Francisco Giants – I don’t understand Brian Sabean and the Giants.  They sign Aaron Rowand to a huge 5 year deal.  But this team is terrible offensively and have no hope in the near future to turn it around.  Barry Zito is going to always be a bust.  Only bright spot is Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.  Their two best prospects are 19 and 17.  It would make sense to trade Cain and Linceum for a bunch of prospects.  Just because 2008 is going to terrible doesn’t mean 2012 does too.  It’s going to be a long couple of years.  Their offense isn't even worth discussing.
   1. Make or Break – Barry Zito.  If he’s awful, they’ll be the worst team in baseball.  If he’s just bad, they’ll be the worst team in the NL.